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Is the political ‘collateral damage’ of failure in Iraq the pressure point for Bush and Blair?

 

Iraq is proving to be a serious political liability for President Bush and PM Blair and might see both leaders and their parties removed from office just like Jose Maria Aznar in Spain. However, whereas the tragic and despicable Madrid train bombings were successful in sending a tremor through Spanish politics, the July 7^th bombings in London last year only served to firm Blair’s resolve and further marginalise Britain’s diverse communities. The US, on the other hand, is now believed to be at a far lower threat of terrorist attacks than the UK. Should the US come under another assault by Islamic militants, it will probably harden the stance of Bush and the likes of the PNAC members, but will add more public criticism of the claims that the War on Terror has made America safer.

 

That is all speculation in any case. What is probably more relevant to the political advisors and politicians behind Bush are the mid-term elections coming up on the 7^th November, which the Democrats are expected to win. If the Democrats meet these expectations they would take both Houses of Congress and paralyse the President for his final two years in office.

 

Today (31^st October) the British Parliament is holding its first full-day session specifically aimed at tackling strategy and policy failures in Iraq. Blair is likely to lose a vote of confidence over the issue of launching an enquiry into the role of the government in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which could prove very damaging.

 

Both leaders are at their lowest public favour points since they stepped into office, both Republicans and New Labour are on course for losing national elections, and Iraq is ‘the’ issue causing the damage. Terror will not work in overhauling the British and American political balance, but failing to rebuild Iraq after having violently removed the last shreds of what authority was left is inflicting political collateral that Republicans and New Labour may not politically survive. As for President Bush and PM Blair, they both seem to have both feet in the political grave.

 

Will anything change if the Democrats take a majority in Congress? And what is the likely outcome of the British Parliament’s debate?

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